The future mortality implications of vaping for adolescents

The most serious potential adverse consequence of vaping by adolescents would be future mortality associated with long-term vaping itself or with vaping-induced cigarette smoking – the gateway effect. Whether the gateway effect exists remains a contentious issue. For the purposes of this analysis, we will assume that it does. We assume, as well, that vaping by smokers increases their odds of quitting smoking. While simulation analyses have examined the net impact of vaping on population-level mortality, most finding a net reduction in premature mortality, no study to date has investigated how vaping would affect the future mortality associated with vaping within a single birth cohort of adolescents. The present study employs a simulation model to evaluate the mortality impact, over their entire lifetimes, of vaping by members of the cohort of 12-year-olds in 2016. Findings indicate that, under some assumptions, vaping will reduce the cohort’s lifetime premature mortality, while under others, it will increase premature mortality. In all cases, however, the impact of vaping on the cohort’s lifetime mortality will be minuscule.